Sojourner's Place

do you know how they're going to come after you?  

Posted by SjP in

While Michael Corleone sat at the cemetery during the burial service for the Don, Tom Hagan asked, Do you know how they'll come after you? Yes, Michael replied, they're arranging a meeting in Tessio's Territory, where I'll be safe.

The meeting: The Democratic National Convention

The territory: Denver, CO
Tessio and his Family: The DNC and Super Delegates
The rule: Never put out a hit on the Chair of the Commission

My mother has a saying plant a seed where you want it to grow. And it certainly seems like the seed to give the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton has been sown. Not only sown, but its about to grow like a weed!

Since the PA primary, Hillary has been espousing how she is ahead in the popular vote using her own new found mathematics. What she says is that she has received more popular votes from those having voted. This includes the Michigan and Florida primaries, and excludes all caucus states.

Now, I don't have a problem with Team Clinton spinning these numbers, but I do have a problem with the fact that this new math is providing the rationale for the DNC and super delegates to steal this nomination from Barack Obama. I must say, its a shrewd and smart move (Tessio was always smarter) because it give super delegates something to "chew on" and "consider" going into Denver six weeks from now.

If she wins or even comes close in any of the remaining primaries, be assured that the Clinton-math will become more of point of discussion. But, don't get it twisted, the discussion will not be should we give her the nomination but rather will this suffice as a plausible rationale to do so.

The spin, however, has started. Below are just a few news outlets reporting on the Clinton popular vote since PA (click the icon for the full story).

April 24, 2008

If Michigan and Florida are counted, Clinton is ahead by 100,000 votes -- 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million. Without those states, Obama has a 500,000 vote lead, 14.4 million to 13.9 million.

Clinton says she has received more votes than any Democratic candidate in history.

Clinton is hoping the popular vote argument will persuade them to endorse her. Of the superdelegates who have made public their choice, Clinton leads Obama 255-232.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean has called on the superdelegates to make up their minds, but superdelegate Debra Kozikowski said it makes sense for her to wait until the primary process is completed.

April 23, 2008

Including Michigan and Florida, Clinton has 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million - a lead of about one-half of a percentage point for Clinton. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama has 14.4 million to Clinton's 13.9 million - a lead of about 1.7 percent for Obama. Neither total includes the primary vote total from Washington state, since it doesn't count toward the nomination and the party awards delegates based on its caucus. Michigan and Florida's votes don't count toward the delegate total that will determine who will win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. Obama said delegates are the most important factor in determining the winner.

April 24, 2008

The truth is, I think, something did happen. Hillary is a little better off than she was before. She's not going to drop out. She is ahead by this weird counting of the popular vote. She can make the case that Obama is not as strong as he looks in the polls because all these exit polls, people say they voted for him and find out by five percent they didn't.

In other words, she has an argument. And who knows? It may prevail. If he screws up again like he did in San Francisco, there's an outside chance, very outside, very remote, that she could still win the nomination.

April 26, 2008

Within hours of the Pennsylvania victory, the Clinton campaign announced that "more people have voted for Hillary than any other candidate," a claim that was widely thought to be aimed at the party honchos who will break the impasse between Sen. Clinton and rival Barack Obama.

A popular-vote lead could give Sen. Clinton talking points with the superdelegates, but it isn't likely to sway them, say political experts. Uncommitted congressmen are more likely to be influenced by the popular vote in their home districts, "but I don't blame [Clinton] for trying," says Carol Fowler, chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party and an Obama supporter.

April 28, 2008

Even so, Clinton now leads in the popular vote, if you include the Florida and Michigan results, by 121,943 votes. And even if you include the imputed totals for the Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine caucuses, she's ahead by 11,721 votes. It seems to me that this provides the Clinton campaign with an important talking point, though one they're probably reluctant to use over the next two weeks. Reluctant, because the likely Obama victory in North Carolina could erase this popular-vote lead, and) an offsetting Clinton margin in Indiana seems unlikely (or at least risky to project from current polling). But looking ahead from May 6, Clinton is likely to regain that popular-vote lead (including Florida and Michigan) and quite possibly could gain a popular-vote lead counting just Florida and not the more problematic (because Obama was not on the ballot there) Michigan. She'll get big margins in West Virginia on May 13 and Kentucky on May 20, and it's not clear Obama will get a big margin in Oregon on May 20; Obama won the nonbinding February 19 primary in Washington only narrowly. If Clinton wins big in Puerto Rico on June 1, as the one poll I've seen there suggests, that will far outshadow in popular votes any Obama margins in South Dakota and Montana on June 3.

Can we really afford to let this happen - not just for this election - but for those yet to come?

Obliged to you for hearing me, and now old Sojourner('s Place) ain't got nothing more to say. ~~SjP

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This entry was posted at Sunday, April 27, 2008 and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the .

4 sojourners hollin' back

You made my E for Excellence list, come see:

The popular vote thing is just a flat out LIE, not only because she's conting votes in non-contest; but because she's not counting the votes in most Caucus states, nor evening using the aggregated estimates of those votes.

It's a sham, and the press is showing how lazy and useless they are in repeating her spin instead of providing the public with factual information. This is how they flagged waved us into Hillary's war in Iraq.

April 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM

Yobachi - much obliged! This award coming from you means much more than I can ever say!

You and I know that the pop vote thing is a lie, but if a lie is repeated enough times you can get stupid folks to believe it.

I saw Geraldo and Dick Morris the other night talking about this. Oddly enough (or maybe not so oddly) Geraldo was making an argument for giving Hillary the nomination based on this very fact. Morris, on the otherhand and given his distain for the Clintons, pointed out that doing so is simply against the rules.

It will be very interesting to see the traction this takes...hopefully none!


April 28, 2008 at 6:45 PM

Yea they may have a game plan but come on Sojourner you can see in the dark. Many of my ancestors were guided in the dark and still manage to find the light.
Keep the faith. The Democratic Party has a lot to lose, and if they show us that they don't want our votes by twisting the votes and cheating then so be it.

In the end who's the biggest loser?

April 29, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Hey TGB! First, much obliged! You know I'm over here trying to do my best.

Yeah, I can see in the dark and that North Star still guides us all to the light and freedom. I know we will see Team Clinton coming a mile away - and that's o.k. But, you know me...I'm ready to blindside the DNC and superdelegates by "giving them an offer they can't refuse"!


April 29, 2008 at 1:45 PM
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